COVID-19 updates part 1 - the new variant
I want to try and make sense of the current COVID-19 situation for people out there who might be confused, scared, isolated or curious. At the end of a weekend of constant news updates and entering Christmas week where are we and what is happening?
We have reasons to be optimistic and reasons to be very cautious. This winter was always predicted to be hard. Autumn has already been very tough – notably in the North of England. Across America it has been much worse with infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths from COVID-19 running very high for many weeks now. Thanksgiving celebrations had an additional negative impact – this was already a big warning ahead of Christmas.
The new SARS-CoV-2 variant (B.1.1.7)
I’m no expert here, but I have done a lot of reading on this over the weekend and spoken to some trusted sources. SARS-CoV-2 like all viruses mutates frequently, but it actually does so much less often that influenza or HIV. Most of the SARS-CoV-2 mutations don’t make any meaningful difference to the virus, but they allow scientists to track different strains of the virus as they spread. The key difference about the new variant (named B.1.1.7) is the rapidity with which it is spreading. It has multiple coding mutations that point to their being a change in the biology of the virus enabling it to spread quicker. There is currently no evidence that it makes COVID-19 disease worse. Nor is there any evidence that it makes the vaccines less effective. Both these last points will need to be studied in detail; we can expect some rapid answers, but so far it looks ok.
So why is everyone so worried about the new variant?
Simply because it looks to spread quicker than the previous versions of the virus – it looks to be up to 70% more transmissible. The new variant is more common in London, the South East and the East of England. The current tier system was insufficient to contain the spread and therefore new measures were necessary. One could argue that different measures should have been taken earlier, but the data on the new variant is very new.
What does this mean for us?
I’m afraid it means that we are going have to accept that we have more restrictions on our daily lives for a while yet. Vaccination has started. I will write about this tomorrow, but here is the top-level summary. The vaccines are very effective with a good safety profile. The strong recommendation is that people with chronic conditions like Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis get vaccinated when invited. Vaccination is our exit strategy and really does give huge hope for a return to normality soon. But this will take some months and in that time we should do everything we can to minimise risk. The more transmissible the new variant of the virus the more we have to mitigate – physical distancing, minimise contacts, mask wearing, hand washing.
It is looking likely that tight restrictions will last for some time. The rapid closing of the UK borders will surely to add to the sense of unease many of use feel. At a time when we are used to family gatherings and festive celebrations we are instead in danger of feeling very isolated. It is very important therefore that we do our best to look out for ourselves and for each other. Please do not suffer alone. At the bottom are a list of phone numbers you might find helpful if you need to talk. In the coming days I will compile some tips and additional resources on looking after our mental health during the festive period and beyond. I will also come back with an update on what we know about COVID-19 and immune-mediated diseases including inflammatory bowel disease. But for now, please take care and try to find some peace. Be hopeful.
Please don’t struggle in silence. Call someone and talk:
Samaritans 116 123
CALM 0800 58 58 58
YoungMinds 0800 018 2138
ChildLine 0800 1111
No Panic 0844 967 4848
SANE 0300 304 7000
Get Connected 0808 808 4994